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Climate
defined by IPCC
Silly? Very Silly?? Naive???
Posted by Dr. Arnd Bernaerts, April 2014
Clear and unambiguous
definitions
of all terms used are
a prerequisite for any
meaningful communication,
and for sound
scientific work.
- A
definition serves to sharpen, clarify, or point out the objective of
discourse.
- A
definition attempts to explain a word using other words.
- A
definition is a statement that explains the meaning of a term.
Does IPCC in
its 5th Report [AR5-WGI, 2013] since 1990 observe such basic
rules? The Glossary, attached as Annex
III (pp. 1447-1465), does not, stating that
Climate
in a narrow sense is usually defined as the average weather,
or more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the
mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time
ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The classical
period for averaging these variables is 30 years, as defined by the
World Meteorological Organization. The relevant quantities are most
often surface variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind.
Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical
description, of the climate system.
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On the other hand it represents the state of climate science.
Neither the World Meteorology Organisation or other scientific
organisations or institutions use a different terminology. Is climate
science incapable to define what they are talking about? An analysis of
the term CLIMATE as defined in the Glossary (left column) show big flaws
(right column).
Climate
[1]
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[1]
The term ‘climate’ (used in Ancient Greek klima, meaning inclination
of the sun) was used to describe the average weather at a location
according the season. It was a layman’s term over 3000 years. As a
scientific term it came in use only during the last decades. [A],
[B], [C]; more HERE
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in
a narrow sense [2]
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[2]
What is CLIMATE in a wider sense?
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is
usually defined [3]
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[3]
Is there any “unusual” CLIMATE definition? What shall
“usual” explain?
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as
the average[5]
weather [4],[6].
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[4]
The term ‘weather’ is not listed in the IPCC-Glossary! The core
term is not defined! Silly? A joke?
[5]
‘Weather’ presumably consists of up to several hundred
parameters or descriptions. More details HERE,
and HERE..
[6]
‘Weather’ is also a layman’s term since immemorial times, as
described in the AMS-Glossary: “As the state of the atmosphere,
mainly with respect to its effects upon life and human activities.”
While it is a perfectly common term in the layman’s sphere, it is
totally insufficient for scientific work.
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or
more rigorously [7] ,
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[7]
If the initial explanation ‘explains’ nothing (1-5), a more
‘rigorous’ approach explains either nothing.
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as
the statistical description [8]
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[8]
The word statistic
is a quantity computed from sample data. A statistical description
is a synonym of statistic. Once a statistic always a statistic.
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in
terms of the mean [9]
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[9]
Which ‘terms’, which ‘means’?
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and
variability [10]
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[10]
Which variability is meant? IPCC-Glossary cause confusion if saying:
“Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and
other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of
extremes, etc.) of the climate on all spatial and temporal scales
beyond that of individual weather events. Variability may be due to
natural internal processes with the climate system (individual
variability, or anthropogenic external forcing (external variability).”
Do they mean ‘weather variability’ or statistical variability’?
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of
relevant quantities [12]
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[12]
Who defines what is a ‘relevant quantity’?
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over
a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of
years [13].
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[13]
What a flaw! How can science work with such nonsense? How can the
general public and politics understand and evaluate ‘scientific
findings’?
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The
classical period for averaging these variables is 30 years, as
defined by the World Meteorological Organization. [14]
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[14]
Wrong, at least misleading! Only once the predecessor of the WMO
agreed in 1935 that the period from 1901 to 1930 should be used to
express departures from mean datax). Not only has this
fixed indicator been abandoned, but also the time span of 30 years.
What is now a ‘change’?
x)
Kincer,
J.B., 1935; Monthly Weather Review, 63, 342-344, available online
at:
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/063/mwr-063-12-0342.pdf.
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The
relevant quantities [15] are most often surface [16] variables
such
as temperature, precipitation and wind [17]
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[15]
see [above 12]
[16]
What shall the word ‘surface’ indicate?
[17]
‘Weather’ consists of several hundred parameters, see [5]
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Climate
in a wider sense [18] is the state, including a statistical
description, of the climate system [19]
; [IPCC definition, next box below]
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[18]
The whole sentence is confusing and utterly nonsense. It actually
says: “Climate is the state of the climate system”. According
IPCC definition, climate is statistic. Why do the authors include in
the sentence: “including a statistical description”.
[19]
Deliberate or naive? The definition of ‘climate system’ explains
nothing. The same definition could be used to explain ‘nature’,
consisting “of the
atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the cryosphere, the lithosphere and the
biosphere, and the interactions between them.”
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IPCC-Glossary says: The
climate system is the highly complex system consisting of five major
components: the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the cryosphere, the
lithosphere and the biosphere, and the interactions between them.
The climate system evolves in time under the influence of its own
internal dynamics and because of external forcings such as volcanic
eruptions, solar variations and anthropogenic forcings such as the
changing composition of the atmosphere and land use change.
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Recently Dr.
Tim Ball titled a post (25.
Feb. 2014 -
HERE): “Government Weather and Climate Forecasts Are Failures”;
mentioning –inter alia-:
Around 300 BC Theophrastus, a student of Aristotle’s, wrote a book
setting out the first rules for weather forecasting. In the Book of Signs,
he recorded over 200 empirical indicators such as “A halo around the
moon portends rain.” Many skeptics, including me, say we haven’t come
very far since. Indeed, I would argue we have regressed.“
That seems to be the case. A science which is not able to define
the central terms they use: weather and climate, and is unable to name
the oceans as the most potential driver of atmospheric processes, will
fail to advise politics and the public fair, competent, correct, and
thoroughly.
Unambiguous definitions of all
terms
used are a prerequisite
for
any
sound scientific work.
[A]
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H.H.
Lamb, Meteorological Office Bracknell, Berkshire (UK), “The New Look of
Climatology”, NATURE, Vol. 223, September 20, 1969,
pp.1209ff;
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Only
thirty years ago climatology was generally regarded as the mere
dry-as-dust bookkeeping end of meteorology.
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[B]
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F. Kenneth Hare, 1979; „The Vaulting of Intellectual Barriers:
The Madison Thrust in Climatology“,
Bulletin American Meteorological Society , Vol. 60, 1979, p.
1171 – 1124
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This
is obviously the decade in which climate is coming into its own. You
hardly heard the word professionally in the 1940s. It was a layman's
word. Climatologists were the halt and the lame. And as for the
climatologists in public service, in the British service you
actually, had to be medically disabled in order to get into the
climatologically division! Climatology was a menial occupation that
came on the pecking scale somewhat below the advertising profession.
It was clearly not the age of climate.
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[C]
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Spencer Weart, 2007, “The
Discovery of Global Warming”: Chapter: Climatology as a
Profession; http://www.aip.org/history/climate
. Available as book: HARVARD
UNIV. PRESS, 2003.
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__At
the middle of the 20th century the study of climate was a scientific
backwater. People who called themselves “climatologists” were
mostly drudges who compiled statistics about weather conditions in
regions of interest—the average temperatures, extremes of rainfall,
and so forth.
__Climatology could hardly be scientific when meteorology itself was
more art than science.
__(Aside)…..meteorology was scarcely seen as a field of science at
all, let along a science firmly based on physics. Meteorology, one
academic practitioner complained to another in 1950, “is still
suffering from the trade-school blues.”
back to A, B, C |
The subject in
detail:
“Is the term ‚climate’
too unspecific for a fruitful discussion?”
A detailed analysis, 10 pages, in: hmtl,
in; PDF
Presented
at
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22nd
International Conference, Pacific
Congress on Marine Science and Technology,
June
1 - 5 June, 2010,
University
of
Hawai`i
at
Hilo
/USA
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National Conference on
“Climate
Change and Future Security“, Loyola
Institute
of
Frontier
Energy,
January
08 - 09, 2011
Loyola
College
Chennai/India
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How
could it happen that more than a dozen of the most prestigious
scientific associations signed and submitted this letter on ‘climate
change’ without having ensured that the used terminology is
sufficiently defined. Read the rest of the entry
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"Failures
of Meteorology!
Unable
to Prevent Climate Change and World Wars?
Oceans Make Climate!"
Not knowing the reason for the biggest
climatic shift since industrialization, which started in winter
1939/40, rectifies to speak about failures of meteorology. Only four
months into Second World War Northern Europe experienced the coldest
winter in 100 years. The reason: plain physics! Naval war in Northern
European seas released the summer heat too quickly. Polar air got free
access to
Europe
. The same applies to the second and third war winter.
Europe
was back in the Little Ice Age. After
Japan
attacked
Pearl Harbor
on Dec. 7th, 1941 naval war became a global affair. In
close conformity with naval war in European seas, and subsequently in
the Pacific, a pronounced global cooling took place, which lasted
until about the mid 1970s. Furthermore, a thorough research of strong
warming in the Northern Hemisphere from winter 1918/19 to winter
1939/40 would have revealed a convincing link to naval war in
Europe
from 1914 to 1918.
Claims to understand climate should be regarded as a failure as
long as meteorology is unable to explain the two most pronounced
climatic shifts during the last century and the role two world wars
had in this game. These two events would show that the oceans have a
dominate role in the climate system, and man is able to change its
direction by intensive activities in the marine environment. It took
four months to generate the extreme regional winter 1939/40; and
subsequently a few years to contribute to global cooling lasting for
three.
The
book should alter the debate on climate change!
BoD, Books on Demand
GmbH,
Norderstedt
; pages 222;
About 170 figures and 14 color temperature maps;
only in b/w if manufactured outside
Europe
.
The book in PDF: www.oceanclimate.de
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Collection of Information, Material, Discussion from 2007 to 2012
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A |
Basics & The term Climate |
B |
Climate & Climate change |
C |
Weather & Climate |
114a_ American
Meteorology Society’s Glossary concerning the meaning of:
weather, climate, and climate change
111_ UNFCCC's "Glossary of climate change acronyms"
- Two UNFCCC glossaries with surprises -
113_ Various Glossaries Concerning meaning of: Climate, climate change, and weather
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202 Open Letter on „Climate Change:
Reply concerning the letter, 21st October,
to
the U.S.A. Senate by the listed institutions
206 IPCC says that there are important differences
between weather and climate.
Is the claim serious science?
211_ What is Climate, had been asked when: Climate Science: Roger A. Pielke Sr Research Group Weblog started in July 2005
212_ Need to talk about, 2009
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304_ Just a word on the words "weather" and "climate". Here science fails
305_ What is Weather? Is 'average weather' climate?
330_ Prof. Roger A. Pielke Sr calls for recognition that an equivalence of global warming and climate change is erroneous
315_ How did Thomas A. Blair describe in 1942: Weather, Climate and Climatology?
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D |
Climatology, Politique & International Institutions |
E |
Contribution & Papers on UNFCCC |
F |
This & That
-in brief- |
410_ Recently, April 2007, WMO evaluated its role in 'Global Climate Change Issues'
411_ About
Valerio Lucarini’s effort to define climate science in 2002
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510_ Roger. A. Pielke Jr. on: Misdefining "climate change", 2005
516b_Daniel
Bodansky (II) – 1993 – The Convention in place – A
Commentary
516c_Daniel
Bodansky (III) – 2004 – On how the FCCC emerged
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Various V (and more)
Various VI (and more)
VariousVII (and more)
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Biography Dr. Arnd Bernaerts |
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